Black Swans & Brown Pelicans

Those familiar with the concept of a Black Swan, know that Nassim Taleb's Black Swan is a metaphor to explain the disproportionate magnitude and consequence of rare, unexpected events.

This decade's Black Swan arrived in the form of a Brown Pelican in the Gulf of Mexico.

Looking back, one can fathom how management disasters occur in a high-stakes system of unregulated capitalism.

There's a financial incentive for going forward, and a financial disincentive for holding back. ~Lane Wallace

It occurred to me that a Black Swan is not neccessarily a discrete event (or series of events), rather it is

the continuous unfolding paradigm of uncertainty we live in.

There is false security in thinking of Black Swans as discrete events.

BP's Deepwater Horizon oilcano disaster is a culture-changing Black Swan. This disaster reminds me that unknowns cannot be conveniently isolated and discretized on a timeline - as comforting as that might be. Rather, the unforeseen continually unfolds.

It bears reflecting on the immutable: the world is a complex system.

Our complex world is like a spirited race horse. The harder we tug to control it, the more it resists to prove a point.
~Roger Martin

Ever fearful of the impact of lurking Black Swans, we feverously quantify complex systems to make predictions.

We are adept at, but not particularly accurate in, making predictions - whether in the sciences, engineering, or business. Yet the lure of predictive numbers is intoxicating (with the side benefit of providing a living to many professionals).

Years ago I made a living as an engineer making computer models of groundwater contamination as a predictive tool. The results from the model simulations were used to design engineering solutions and to support environmental litigation.

These contaminant flow models were alluring mathematical applications that produced aesthetically pleasing color contours of simulated toxic plumes. The problem is, the models had little or no basis in reality; yet millions of dollars were spent based on the results.

Our world is an intensely complicated, ambiguous system of systems that defies comprehensive quantification
~Roger Martin

Risk management professionals are quick to distinguish between the concepts of Risk and Uncertainty, saying

With risk, we know the odds. With uncertainty, we don't.

If risk is "we don't know what’ll happen, but we know the odds", I have become a skeptic. Here's the rub

Unless the odds-makers are gods, what we're left with - after the hubris and volatile gases burn off - is uncertainty.

At times I have been metrics-obsessed. I have deluded and comforted myself with data collection.

The metrics-obsessed believe that collecting numbers will reveal actionable things we can't afford to ignore. Further, the metrics-obsessed believe that numbers might somehow answer questions they haven't yet thought to ask. Perhaps. Like others questioning their faith, I still obsess about numbers - just in case.

I know certainty is an illusion, so I plan accordingly.

BP PR - The Ultimate Junk Shot

The Ultimate Junk Shot

The ultimate junk shot is not injecting a clever mixture of golf balls and tire shards into the blowout preventer. It's that we live in a balls-out corporatocracy where laissez faire capitalism - from the likes of Ayn Rand to Rand Paul - repeatedly explodes into a fireball.

Mud Beats Oil

The headline for BP's Top Kill procedure at the Deepwater Horizon calamity read "Mud Beats Oil". This makes me wonder if BP executives do a collegial round of Rock-Paper-Scissors before making all crucial decisions.

Why are so many corporations hell-bent on doing the wrong thing?

BP is destroying an entire region of the world & there's still no talk of cutting their next dividend -- Scott Adams

Inexplicable.

But, it does make for dark humor.

Here are the funniest and most poignant tweets about the BP calamity from the fake BP Twitter account BPGlobalPR:

• The good news: Mermaids are real. The bad news: They are now extinct. #bpcares
• We are dedicated to helping the wildlife in the gulf. Any birds that need cleaning must report to 287 Quartemain St, Baton Rouge, LA 70801.
• Just got the concession call from Exxon Valdez. They were great competitors and remarkably evil about everything. #bpwins!
• Not only are we dropping a top hat on the oil spill, we're going to throw in a cane and monocle as well. Keeping it classy.
• If Top Kill doesn't work, we're just gonna toss a giant "Get Well Soon" card into the gulf and hope for the best. #bpcares
• BP will be sponsoring the New Orleans Blues Festival this summer w/ special tribute to Muddy Waters. #bpcares
• We just saw a shark fight an octopus inside the geyser. Almost made this whole thing worth it.
• We are starting a movement to fix the oil leak. Just mail your garbage to New Orleans and we'll take it from there.
• Sorry Kevin Costner, if we were interested in what you had to say, we'd rent Tin Cup.

Man With The BP Hat

Modified lyrics to The Man With The Big Hat
performed by Jerry Jeff Walker and Willie Nelson


Click the play button and follow along...




Jeff Jeff Walker:
In a 'lil bar south of Cut Off
Was on a sultry Louisiana day
Oil Boy comin' off the road, just to pass the time away
Pulled a stool up to the bar. Pushed his hat back on his head
I listened to the stories told, the words that Oil Boy said.
He said...

Willie Nelson:
I can tell you stories 'bout shoveling lube in the rain
Talk about Dick Cheney, and the comin' of the shame
I can talk about the slaughter, of the Spoonbills that flew
Sing you songs of baby Terns, come-a-looking for their crew

CHORUS (both)
And the man with the BP hat is buyin'
Drink up while the drinking is free
Drink up to Brown Pelicans a dead or a dying
Drink to my compadres and me
Drink to my compadres and me

Jeff Jeff Walker:
Well his shirt was brown and faded
And his hat was dripping black
The pants that once were blue were grey, had a pocket gone in back
He had a finger missin' from a hand that laid crude-soaked boom
As he laughed and talked of Oil Boy life, you knew it weren't perfume.
He said...

Willie Nelson:
I rode on the cleanup drive from here to Timbalier Bay
Ten days in the Tyvek suit, and my face is ashen gray
I rode from here to Atchafalaya, without a womans' smile
The porta-potty where I took a crap, was the only light for miles

CHORUS (both)
And the man with the BP hat is buyin'
Drink up while the drinking is free
Drink up to Brown Pelicans a dead or a dying
Drink to my compadres and me
Drink to my compadres and me

Jeff Jeff Walker:
He rested easy at the bar, his foot upon the rail
You know he laughed 'n talked of times he had, tossin’ globs in a pail
The silence never broken, as the words poured from his lips
Just quiet as the dispersant he carried on his hip.
He said...

Willie Nelson:
I seen the day so hot your alligator weed would wilt
And if you had a white plastic bag, you’d fill it with oily silt
And sheens, I’ve seen sheens where your boots slipped in the sand
And your only thoughts was leavin', but you witnessed it firsthand

CHORUS (both)
And the man with the BP hat is buyin'
Drink up while the drinking is free
Drink up to Brown Pelicans a dead or a dying
Drink to my compadres and me
Drink to my compadres and me

Jeff Jeff Walker:
Well he rolled one more tar ball, as he turned toward the door
I heard his cell phone jingling, as his Tyvek booties hit the floor
He loosened up his belt a notch, pulled his hat down on his head
As he turned to say goodbye to me, this is what the Oil Boy said....

Willie Nelson:
Now the boom-lines is chasin’ oil slicks, and the newsman stokes his fear
And to see a beachcombing Oil Boy, is a sight that's mighty queer
But an Oil Boy’s life is lonely, and his lot is kinda harsh
But had it not been for men like me, there wouldn't be no marsh.

CHORUS (both)
Alright, and the man with the BP hat is buyin'
Drink up while the drinking is free
Drink up to Brown Pelicans a dead or a dying
Drink to my compadres and me

Drink to my compadres and me